Protecting Earth From Asteroid 2024 YR4

Scientists say there is only a very small chance that a large space rock(an asteroid named 2024 YR4) will hit Earth in 2032. NASA says asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 3.1 percent chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032. This is the highest chance in modern times for a large space rock of this kind. A rock this size could destroy a whole city. Officials say the world is now much better prepared to protect itself. Richard Moissl leads a European Space Agency team that works to protect Earth from dangerous space rocks. He said the danger is possible, but people should not worry. The chance of a hit often rises for a time as scientists collect more information. After that, the chance will likely fall to zero. Even if the chance reached 100 percent, Earth would still have ways to respond.

Scientists are studying several ways to change the rock’s path. The only method already tested is hitting an asteroid with a spacecraft. In 2022, NASA sent a spacecraft into Dimorphos, a rock 160 meters wide. The mission changed the rock’s path. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is about 40 to 90 meters wide. That is about half as wide as Dimorphos. Agencies could send several spacecraft against it. They must avoid too much force, because pieces could still fly toward Earth. Other ideas do not touch the asteroid at all. A large spacecraft could fly beside the rock and slowly pull it off course. Another idea would push the rock with atoms or laser light. Scientists could also paint one side of the rock white. More light from the sun might then slowly change its path. A nuclear device can move a very large rock, but that idea is risky.

If none of these plans worked, scientists would know where the rock would hit. Most rocks of this size would threaten only one city. People could leave the area in time. Moissl said seven and a half years would give plenty of time to prepare. The chance that 2024 YR4 misses Earth is still about 97 percent.

Do you think people should worry about asteroid 2024 YR4? Why or why not?